February 19, 2015 annual machinery industrial economic operation situation information conference held in Beijing, China Machinery Industry Federation Executive Vice President Chen Bin, China Machinery Industry Federation and Deputy Secretary General of the statistics and information department director Zhao Xinmin, Deputy Secretary General of China Association of automobile manufacturers long Yaojie attended the meeting, will Chen, vice president of informed the 2015 and during the "Twelfth Five Year" period, the machinery industry development, and on the analysis of the prospect of 2016 machinery industrial economic operation pointed out: 2016 machinery industry will continue the previous year since the fourth quarter of low stabilization of the situation, the annual growth rate will be in 2015 is similar. Specifically, the annual increase in the value of the industrial machinery industry is expected to grow at around 5.5%, the main business revenue and profit growth of about 3.5%, foreign trade and exports are expected to achieve positive growth.

By 2015, under the world economic environment is complex, the downward pressure on the domestic economy background, industrial machinery conscientiously implement the central on the "steady growth, adjust the structure of work requirements, work hard, before the pressure line. Industry economic growth slowed down, but the main economic indicators still achieved positive growth; in the market forced under the policy guidance, to accelerate the pace of structural adjustment, transformation efforts to upgrade to increase.

Looking forward to 2016, the industry is still under great pressure, difficulties and problems are still a lot, but the confidence and determination is still in. Machinery industry will fully implement the party's eighteen and the eighth session of the third and fourth, the Fifth Plenary Session of the spirit, earnestly implement the decision of the central economic work conference deployment, to implement the "made in China 2025" as the starting point, with the market oriented, with enterprises as the main body, take innovation as the fundamental, in maintaining the stable development of the machinery industry on the basis of advancing the machinery industry structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, fall this synergism, and strive to achieve the industry's healthy development.

One, 2015 the economic operation of machinery industry

(a) major economic indicators growth rate dropped significantly

1, the development speed is lower than the average level of industry

2015 increase in the value of machinery industry grew 5.5%, lower than the previous year growth rate 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period the national average industrial growth rate (6.1%) 0.6 percentage points. Machinery industry added value growth rate lower than the national average growth rate in recent years, there are few, highlighting the seriousness of the industry situation.

2, the main business revenue growth fell significantly

2015 mechanical industry realized main business income of 22.98 yuan, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year, the growth rate fell 6.09 percentage points over the previous year, but higher than the same period the national industrial growth rate (0.8%) 2.52 percentage points.

70%

3 product output fell 30% growth

In 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the 64 major mechanical products, production growth of only 18, accounting for 28.13%, production decline of 46 kinds, accounting for 71.87%. Specific analysis shows that large investment products such as metallurgy mining equipment, engineering machinery, conventional power generation equipment and serious excess capacity of general machinery products such as all kinds of ordinary machine tools, AC motor, wire and cable production fell a larger; high horsepower tractors, instrumentation, environmental protection equipment and instrument, electric forklift, wind power generation equipment, automobile sport utility by car (SUV) and consumption, people's livelihood, energy saving and emission reduction, industrial upgrading is closely related to the products to maintain growth.

CNC machine production was 23.5 million units, down 9.53%.

Large tractor production was 7.74 million units, an increase of 33%.

Power generation equipment production 1.1 kilowatts, down 17.2%, but maintained a continuous 10 year production of more than 1 kilowatts.

Automobile production and sales were 2450.33 and 2459.76, respectively, an increase of 3.25% and 4.68%, respectively, both breakthroughs in production and sales of 2450 units, a record high, for seventh consecutive years in the world's first.

(two) profit growth rate lower than the main business revenue growth

2015 economic growth rate of economic efficiency of the machinery industry is lower than the main business revenue growth, loss of business and increase the amount of loss. Total annual total profit of 1.6 yuan, an increase of 2.46% over the previous year, the growth rate fell 8.15 percentage points over the previous year, the main business income growth rate of 0.86 percentage points lower than the same period. Main business income margin was 6.96%, compared with the same period last year fell 0.06 percentage points. Annual tax total of 8869 yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year; corporate loss of 12.82%, an increase of 2.85 percentage points over the previous year; the amount of loss of enterprise losses increased by 19.29%.

(three) both the import and export trade surplus increased

2015 foreign trade of machinery industry showed a downward trend, the total annual total import and export of 6665 billion U.S. dollars, down 8.13%. Which imports $2777, down 14.06%; exports 3888 billion, down 3.36%, there has been a negative growth since the 2009 international financial crisis. The annual trade surplus hit a record high of $1110.

(four) fixed asset investment growth continued to fall

2015 machinery industry completed a total fixed assets investment of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7%, lower than the growth rate of 0.3 percentage points of total social fixed assets investment, manufacturing 1.6 percentage points higher than, with the last year of the machinery industry growth compared to the drop of 3.02 percentage points, the growth rate has declined for four consecutive years.

(five) weak demand led to the decline in orders, prices continued to slump

Overcapacity in the low-end products, lack of market demand led to a decline in mechanical products orders, prices in the doldrums. 2015 machinery industry key enterprises total order continuation of last year's weakness and growth rate further down, an always in negative growth, cumulative from January to December fell 4.02% is expected in the future for a period of time the demand not flourishing machinery industry is still facing important challenges of.

Machinery and industrial products price index continues the trend of the previous year running low, to 2015, mechanical products cumulative price index consecutive 48 months less than 100%. 142 major mechanical products, the cumulative price index fell 103, accounting for as high as 72.5%.

Two, "12th Five-Year" the development of the machinery industry

"Twelfth Five Year Plan" is a machinery industrial development an extraordinary period, the review of five years to, industrial machinery is in a difficult and complex environment temper forward.

(a) industry economy has been developing, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly

During 12th Five-Year, the scale of the machinery industry to further expand, but the growth rate continued to decline in the main indicators.

On the scale, the total assets increased by 10.97 in 2010 to 19.27 yuan in 2015, the growth rate of 23.55% by 11th Five-Year, an average annual growth rate of down to an average annual growth of 11.91%.

Output, the main business income from 13.96 in 2010 to yuan in 2015 to 22.98 yuan in, the growth rate from the 11th Five-Year average annual growth rate of 27.9% down to an average annual growth rate of 10.48%.

Benefits, the total profit from 2010 to 1.17 yuan in 2015 to 1.6 yuan, the growth rate of 11th Five-Year by the average annual growth of more than 30% down to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%.

In foreign trade, total exports rose from $2585 in 2015 to $3888 in 2010, an average annual increase of 8.51%; the trade surplus increased from $31.36 in 2015 to $1110 in 2010, an increase of 35 times.

With the middle and late stage of industrialization in the middle and late stage of industrialization, the development of the machinery industry has entered a new period of growth.

(two) changes in market demand structure

And "fifteen" and "Eleventh Five Year" period overall rapid growth is different, machinery industry sub sectors in the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the market demand structure changed. The main sign of change is the increased differentiation.

1, and the people's livelihood, consumer related products or industry growth faster

Its main business revenue and profit growth, for example, higher than the industry average level of products and industry mainly movement type multi-purpose vehicle (SUV), food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, instrumentation, environmental protection machinery and so on.

2, mainly rely on investment driven industry gradually down

Take the main business income and profit growth as an example, below the industry average level of the industry is mainly construction machinery, petrochemical general, heavy mine, gold cutting machine. These industries are typical of the machinery industry investment products industry.

The automotive industry also showed the same trend as the rise of consumer sub sectors, investment class decline.

3, and intelligent, green industry production and marketing situation is relatively good

And automation, information and intelligent manufacturing closely related instruments and meters industry, to maintain a rapid growth rate. Electrical equipment industry of UHV power transmission and transformation equipment situation is obviously better than conventional products; pumped storage unit situation good from the conventional hydroelectric power unit, wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment situation good in conventional power generation equipment.

These changes reflect, in the background of our country accelerate the adjustment of economic structure, the proportion of secondary industry tend to drop, the proportion of tertiary industry increased, machinery industry gradually adapt to the changes of market demand structure, is from the previous main service on investment activities gradually shift to pay more attention to and mining in the field of consumption, people's livelihood and information technology, energy saving and emission reduction requirements.

(three) innovation and development results significantly, the pace of adjustment of industrial structure to accelerate

Downward pressure on the economy continues to increase in the background, during the 12th Five-Year mechanical enterprises to actively adapt to market changes in the ability to continue to enhance the endogenous development momentum continued to enhance the industrial structure adjustment continues to promote.

1, independent research and development results are frequent

High-end equipment, independent research and development to achieve a breakthrough: large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC and DC and flexible DC power transmission and transformation equipment, oil and gas long distance pipeline key equipment, large coal chemical key equipment of high-end equipment independent research and development success. Burning coal 350MW supercritical boiler was successfully developed and put into application, of great significance to the economic development of Xinjiang.

High-end control system made gratifying achievements, have long been subject to import process industry with DCS control system localization results, the domestic market share of the DCS system has gone beyond foreign product, and has the ability to participate in international competition.

2, "the field of development continue to promote

A number of long-term rely on imports of key basic parts, the core components of the progress made in china. High voltage insulation transformer bushing, terminal device, high quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheet, large power forgings, gas turbine blade at high temperature, large nuclear power static sealing device, excavator supporting high pressure valve, high-end bearings, LNG cryogenic high pressure casting ball valve localization level have been significantly improved.

3, innovation and development

Industry innovation ability construction is paid more attention to, on based on the tests and the capacity building investment increased significantly: constraints in new product R & D based test platform construction progress, large compressor test Taiwan, hydraulic model test station, power station safety valve test and Taiwan etc. platform phase following the completion of, a few areas, such as high current and high voltage test ability has reached the world advanced level in the same industry.

Accelerate the pace of Collaborative Innovation: mechanical enterprises and users of enterprises, research institutes in the field of equipment R & D process innovation and other areas of cooperation more closely and frequently. Cooperation model innovation, cooperative research and development with remarkable results.

4, the contribution of private enterprises to the development of the industry continues to increase

By 2015, private enterprises realized main business income of 13.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.48%, industrial machinery the industry average growth rate of 3.16 percent higher than, the machinery industry main business income accounted for the proportion reached 59.05%, and in 2010 compared to the proportion increased 7.79 percentage points; realizes the total profit for 886 billion yuan, in the machinery industry realized a total profit of the proportion of has reached 55.4%, 8.94 percent higher than that of 2010.

5, the regional structure to continue to adjust the expected direction

In 12th Five-Year, the regional structure of the machinery industry continued to adjust to the expected direction of policy. 2015 in the East, middle and west of China realized main business income accounted for machinery industry total income of 65.02%, 24.02% and 10.96%, which in the proportion of the central and western regions compared with 2010 improves the 5.52%; total profit, the proportion of the central and western regions also by 30.82% in 2010 increased to 33.29% in 2015.

6, the extension of the slowdown in the expansion of investment structure to improve

During 12th Five-Year, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets investment slowed down year by year, from 30.35% in 2010 down to 9.7% in 2015, indicates that the rapid expansion of the industry's early trend has significantly slowed down. At the same time the investment structure has improved, in 2015 for the reconstruction and technical transformation investment growth rate higher than the industry average growth rate of 9.02 percentage points. From the proportion of view, in 2015 the total investment in the mechanical and technological transformation investment accounted for 27.9%, 7.43 percentage points higher than in 2010.

7, foreign trade structure optimization

During the period of "12th Five-Year", the export structure of the foreign trade of the machinery industry continued to optimize. General trade exports in the proportion of total exports increased by 52.3% in 2015 to 60.51% in 2010, increased by 8.21 percentage points; the general trade balance by a deficit of $274.36, into a surplus of $505.64.

8, actively explore the new path of transformation and development

Intelligent manufacturing, "Internet plus" started. The automatic production line, digital workshop, modern logistics has formed a certain scale in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions; the traditional engineering machinery manufacturing enterprises and agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises have launched the "try Internet plus", in order to open up new markets.

New formats, new models continue to emerge. Financing lease marketing model in the metallurgy, mining and so on a number of sets of projects began to explore new business models, such as agricultural machinery and electronic commerce began to be applied; the transformation of traditional enterprises to the manufacturing service industry continues to promote.

In short, the mechanical industry in the past five years actively adjust, take the initiative to adapt to the new normal efforts to explore innovative development of the road.

In three, 2016, the economic operation of machinery industry outlook

2016 is "13th Five-Year" at the beginning of the year, marking China's machinery industry has been standing on the starting point for new development. Should be seen, due to changes in the economic environment at home and abroad, the mechanical industry in the face of contradictions and problems will be more complex, structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the task will be more onerous. Nevertheless, positive factors still have the steady progress of the machinery industry. One is the central economic work conference clear tone of "Wenzhongqiujin" economic policy, stressed the importance of "to productivity, to inventory, deleveraging, lowering cost, make a short board, improve the supply system of quality and efficiency," the main task, and the release of the macroeconomic policy continuity and stability of the information, to machinery industry in the development of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. Two is the "China manufacturing 2025" and the relevant supporting policies have been introduced, for the long-term development of the machinery industry and short-term adjustment of the direction, provides policy support. Third, industry association is cooperating with relevant state departments pay close attention to the study of machinery industry steady growth, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, reducing the efficiency of the policy, measures and suggestions, for from the supply and demand sides of the force, demand pull and push application, promote innovation, short board, adjust the structure, tamping foundation, excellent environment, increase efficiency, and provide a good policy environment for the development of machinery industry, boost the confidence and determination of the whole industry.

Comprehensive analysis, is expected in 2016 machinery industry will continue the previous year since the fourth quarter of low stabilization of the situation, the annual growth rate will be in 2015 similar. Specifically, the annual increase in the value of the industrial machinery industry is expected to grow at around 5.5%, the main business revenue and profit growth of about 3.5%, foreign trade and exports are expected to achieve positive growth.

In the new year, the whole industry to strengthen confidence, actively promote the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, driven by innovation as a solution to the current and future a period of development of the industry is faced with the problem of the main starting point, to achieve industrial machinery "45" off to a good start.

Vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation executive vice president Chen Bin

Deputy Secretary General of China Machinery Industry Association and director of the Department of statistics and information Zhao Xinmin

China Automobile Industry Association Deputy Secretary General Yao Jie